If we register and vote as republicans, 2024 could be the year we officially rid the country of the Trumpsters.
In each election, you have two opportunities to vote against a candidate of your choice - once in the primary, once in the general election. Most people undervalue the power of their primary vote. And often times, their primary vote is the only one that matters.
For example, if democrats and independents in blue states registered as republicans, and the blue states were won by President Trump’s rival for the GOP nomination (e.g. Governor Kasinich, Jeff Flake or Nikki Haley), his more moderate rival would need no more delegates to win the nomination. Because the blue states make up the majority of the GOP delegates for the GOP nomination. And democrats and independents could also register as republicans in red states, thereby adding delegates to Trump’s rival’s delegate count. The GOP has many potential candidates who would be ethical, defend the constitution and the rule of law, serve America responsibly abroad, and keep us safe.
Here are some basic facts about the 2020 GOP primary:
Trump, or a Trumpian candidate, would need 1,237 delegates out of 2,472 delegates to win the GOP nomination.
The delegates for the GOP nomination from states that Barak Obama won in the general election of 2012 account for the majority of the GOP primary delegates in the GOP primaries (1,318 out of 2,472). If just those states voted against Trump, he would not have the delegates needed to win the nomination.
But you may say, the math isn’t that clean. There are some blue states that give proportional delegate allocations. Yes, that is true. So read on, because the same is true of the red states….
Of the Blue states, roughly half are winner-take-all voting (accounting for 669 delegates). California is the largest with 172 delegates. Trump could also lose the other proportional blue states, and those states could deliver the majority of their GOP primary delegates to Trump’s rival (330 delegates out of 660). That would give Trump’s rival 999 delegates, just 238 delegates short of the nomination.
Meanwhile, of the states that didn’t vote for Obama in 2012, only seven are winner take all (309 delegates). So Trump may think he is safely expected to have 309 delegates in his corner at this time. In those states though, he could lose also, because in those states, there is no reason for anyone to be registered as a democrat. Strategically, everyone should be a republican, because votes in the democratic primaries for state officials don’t matter (a democrat is never going to win in the general election, so the primary votes for the republican candidates are the only ones that matter!). So in those states, there should be more new republican democrats who can vote in the primaries than republicans who voted for Trump in 2016. He could lose these states as well!
The rest of the red states are proportional delegate designations. Which means that democrats voting in traditionally red states could deliver added assistance to GOP challengers of Trump. Trump’s rival would have to win just 16% of the votes in these states, and could do so with the help of former democrats and independents. (We will add a table below to show this.) In the 2016 election, there were only seven states where Trump won more than two thirds of the votes (and in these states’ primaries Trump won only 95 of their 219 delegates in the primaries).
What have those red state democrats got to lose? They should register as republicans!
In short, if the Trump candidate lost the blue states and democrats and independents in red states registered as republicans and/or voted in the GOP primaries, the Trump candidate could easily lose the race for the GOP nomination. The question is, where is your primary vote most valuable? If you want to vote against the 2024 Trump candidate twice, if the democrats are all better than him, then you should ensure that you can vote as a republican in the primaries in 2020.
But don’t take our word for it about the calculations above. Visit these two websites and see for yourself!
https://www.270towin.com/2020-republican-nomination
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html
http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#.XAzy-FLMzFQ